PREDICTIVE ANALYTICS: TRANSFORMING COMPANIES THROUGH STATISTICAL AND QUANTITATIVE ANALYSIS

by

Seenath

The use of predictive analytics is common in industries such as financial services, retail and telecommunications. Businesses with established predictive analytics practices are now moving outside of traditional niches such as marketing and risk management. Organizations are now able to predict website click through rates and overall behavior, they also help the Human Relations staff anticipate which employees are most likely to be disgruntled or dissatisfied. Nowadays organizations use predictive analytics for everything from projecting the growth of markets and market shares to predicting when manufacturing equipment will fail and it involves using visualization to help executives see which events are normal business interventions and which ones require intervention.

Users of

predictive analytics

need to understand that predictive models serve as a decision support tool and how to use output in their own decision making process. This analytics is both a science and an art it takes time and effort to build that first model and get the data right but once the first one is built the next one is less expensive to model. It is all about projecting forward and transforming a company.

Business analytics delivers actionable insights new interpretations and evaluations of business performance based on data and statistical methods. Predictive analytics on the other hand provides customer level behavior prediction to enable businesses to deliver more relevant content to customers, improve response rate, improve retention and improve profitability of the company.

This is a general term for using both simple and complex models to support anticipatory decision making. Analysis of historical data is used to build a predictive model to support decisions. Managers in consumer packaged goods, retail, banking, energy and healthcare industries are the most active users of this kind of analytics. It is becoming increasingly incorporated into in day to day operations management using real time or near real time systems.

This analytics is becoming increasingly important in large and medium sized organizations where the development and use of analytics is becoming a core technology competency of many companies. How important is using predictive models? Very important, every organization should have an enterprise data model. Integrated planning and predictive modeling can enable an organization to adjust policy and execution in response to shifting dynamics in an organizations and business environment.

Today instead of competing on traditional factors, companies are beginning to employ statistical and qualitative analysis as methods for competition. These firms have managed to overcome historical barriers by gathering and managing transaction data and some of the cultural resistance in organizations that are accustomed to making decisions based on their gut feeling because of predictive analytics. It has managed to change the way organizations manage themselves and compete in the marketplace.

This article explains why organizations these days are using predictive analytics for predicting just about anything.Visit us

bostonanalytics.com

.

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By Emily Edwards

Brandee Danielle Introduces Modern Crib Bedding

When you shop for the perfect nursery ensemble, you will find no shortage of bunnies, bears, and other sweet themes. The new Modern Baby Bedding line by Brandee Danielle offers something a little different. This line combines classic elegance with fabulous colors to provide nursery themes that you can enjoy as much as your baby will. These new sets are similar to nursery bedding collection themes by Glenna Jean, Banana Fish Baby Bedding and Kimberly Grant, but at the different price level.

The symmetrical nursery designs in this line come in all the colors you need to complete your modern nursery room dcor. Soft greens, muted pinks, and chocolate brown fabrics blend together beautifully in the Modern Baby Girl Caffe and Bubbles Pink collections. Light teal blue, chocolate brown, taupe, and white highlight the Modern Baby Boy Caffe and Bubbles Blue selections. Retro Baby Boy and Retro Baby Girl merge these colors with unique designs for a perfect baby nursery. We are constantly updating and expanding the Modern Baby Bedding collection to include a variety of styles and colors so that we truly have something for everyone.

Each bedding set includes a bed quilt, a 1-piece wraparound standard bumper, dust ruffle, and fitted sheet. The soft, lush fabric, rich color, and durability will ensure that this bedding set still looks great long after your baby has outgrown it. These new collections wouldnt be complete without the perfect accessories. You can choose pillows, toy bags, diaper stackers, tab valances, lampshades, and spindle lamps to complete your gorgeous ensemble.

Founded in 1980, Brandee Danielle has become a leader in the baby bedding industry. We strive to offer top quality products at an affordable price. Name dropping and price gouging are not our game. Because we believe all babies are special, we have created collections that any parents will love. As always, our prices ensure that you wont have to break the bank to have the nursery of your dreams.

About the Author: Emily Edwards is a baby bedding expert at BabyEnvy.com, an internet retailer of

Mordern Baby Bedding

,

Glenna Jean

and

Banana Fish Baby Bedding

.

Emily has over 20 years of experience in special baby products industry. Her expertise extends beyond crib bedding, baby cribs, and baby monitors.

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By Brad Levi

I am sure we would all like to make a lot of money with the best option trading ideas. In fact, there are concepts and methods that can be implemented using a small options trading account, for example, using a $,2000 account, and risking $300 – $500 on single, selective, and fair probability trades. These are the trades that would have a smaller probability of going well, than the rest we usually do, but they can often have a huge profit potential. And I mean huge beyond anything you can imagine!

We are going to discuss 2 such high profit potential concepts, and one small profit potential concept. They are all considered low budget option trading ideas, and can be implemented using ATM or OTM options.

1.Capturing company mergers and acquisitions phases

2.Capturing technical momentum breakouts

3.Ways to trade OTM options in high probability setups

Lets see them in detail, concept 1 is well known, but is it really possible to know where the next merger will occur? The fact is that most of the mergers happen during market tops and bottoms, they dont happen as often in a any other period. In fact the vast majority of companies, do that! During market tops and bottoms, so you only have to watch out just before that major market top or bottom. That is the top of a bull market and the bottom of a bear market, but there are also, other rare cases in between, where a merger may be detected.

It takes a lot of research, fundamental research and market savvy to figure out what weak balance sheet companies could merge with what strong companies. And how they see mutual benefits. If you cant do it yourself, you can still find experts who perform this fundamental analysis, follow the news closely, and could provide you with the list of the favourable candidates.

Beyond that, you should also understand yourself how this works, for example: what if company A merges with Company B? And if A is much bigger and stronger than B, then Bs stock price will skyrocket! And not only you can buy Bs stock at a low price, but if the merger is set to take place during a bear market bottom, then both the stocks of A and B will be significantly lower than their actual intrinsic value, or just way lower than their 5 year highs!

Actual profit potential on company mergers is enormous, sometimes you can turn $500 into $30,000 by just buying a cheap ATM or OTM Call option! It may sound like a long shot bet, but it doesnt have to be like that! You can increase the probability of winning by doing your own research at the right time, and on the most likely candidate stocks. That way you know, that you are really getting the odds on your side, even if you place a series of 10 trades, at $500 each, and 8 trades lose say 50% of their value because of the merger plans being cancelled, you can still make a fortune on the remaining two!

If we assume you lose a total of $2,000 on the trades gone bad, and this is a worst case scenario! You still get 2 mergers right, and you get in early in the options trade, what if these two trades make a 20fold gain on your $500 option trade? You get back $20,000 from these 2 accurate trades!

This technique is possible and requires a lot of market savvy in analyzing and monitoring company news and their business outlook.

Then we have technique number 2, capturing technical momentum that is about to be released. Well believe it or not, most of the time, high volume, quality stocks whose companies are about to merge, DO produce technical indications on the charts. These indications are foretelling of a huge breakout to occur, even though we cannot be so sure about the direction, with a little bit of more digging into the news and fundamentals we can gain more insight as to what the most likely scenario is.

Please be aware that option brokers are the market makers here, they will use all information available to price their option premiums. The good news is that they can only use what is out there, and as we have seen, the options pricing formula uses stock parameters that are merely a story about the past. In no way does implied volatility accurately predict stock price fluctuation, it does provide accuracy on average, and over 1000s of stocks so that option brokers adjust the premiums at a fair price. Call options sellers (From whom you will buy your Call option) will be paid a fair premium.

But this doesnt mean they cannot be completely wrong on a single stock, of course they can be wrong!

This is like car insurance companies, their insurance premiums are calculated to protect the company against the average expected loss, and sure the company will never lose money in the long term. But they cannot predict and pinpoint the driver that will make the next massive claim, neither are they clever enough to identify the number of fraudulent claims some savvy car drivers successfully make!

Statistics works collectively, but is not a crystal ball! And the option pricing formula often gets caught, completely off guard when a technical breakout occurs, that is because this formula doesnt take technical analysis into account!

In fact some people and some academics dont believe in technical analysis at all.

For the rest of us who do believe in technical analysis, we have seen it very often, proving market makers and their option premiums wrong!

Check out this simple triangle formation on the Microsoft stock (MSFT), this pattern is a very reliable breakout pattern, and the options pricing formula does not see it:

In such cases, or even other even more dramatic cases, you can buy cheap ATM options, and make a very good profit. The option market makers will offer you a cheap ATM option, or even a really cheap OTM option. In the above case of Microsoft, an OTM option could be really cheap, and have a Delta of around 10. A Delta of 10 means that the option will only make $0.10 for every $1 the stock moves higher, up until it becomes ITM. A Delta of 10 also tells you that they believe this option has a 10% probability of expiring in-the-money, and it may sound discouraging, almost like a lottery ticket. But the technical analysis picture above tells me that the stock will prevail over the option pricing formula and the low Delta! The only thing I need is enough price movement.

This is just an event of uneven probability, (event A is far more likely than event B) here we know that they have kept premiums low, even though we know volatility will breakout soon, and I also know the stock will most likely go up. I can therefore profit from this move by risking a very small amount of money!

Again, like I mentioned, these opportunities emerge here and there, everyday in the markets. The probability is there, to actually outsmart the market makers by profiting big, from a cheap option. Like I said, from an opportunity perspective, its equivalent to fooling a car insurance company and making a fraudulent claim, one that their experts cannot understand.

Bear in mind that Mergers and Technical breakouts can sometimes coincide, you may get technical confirmation of the suspected merger, even though we treat them separately!

Finally, we have the 3rd concept mentioned in this article, that is trading only OTM options, ideally selling them. This is not something new, but we need to focus on the low-budget option trading principle!

By observing implied and historical volatilities, using Anlayzetrade.com back testing tools, one can sell OTM options when these are the most expensive, and then buy them back when they become cheaper (When implied volatility is low compared to implied volatility range, and historical volatility range)

Selling options is not a low budget strategy, but there are ways and strategies that take care of this by implementing protection, (covered option writing) where the trader finds the opportunity to write options, then also finds a trade to hedge this risk just to minimise the margin requirements of the broker, and make it indeed a low budget selling strategy.

For example we have seen Calendar spreads, where you can profit from the fast time decaying option, while staying protected from moderate adverse moves. This eliminates the need of a large account size. But we can also devise trades where the objective is to profit from the underlying stocks move, while being sellers. Again popular ideas are not very profitable or smart. You still need stock-specific, technical analysis based strategies. But they do work! And Analyzetrade.com offers just the tools required to develop these strategies. The objective here is to write ITM options of high value, that will become OTM and cheap, within few days.

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About the Author: Option Software from Asio Investment Tools gives you the opportunity to practice on historical charts and test against actual market conditionswithout risking a penny of your money!

Intuitive, simple to use, Options Softwareoptionseducation.org/

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By Angel CH

Personal unsecured bad credit loans are beneficial for people who do not have a good credit score. It is here that people who do not enjoy a high credit rating get easy loans by resorting to the option of unsecured loans that provide grants to the people with bad credit. It is one of the most feasible options of procuring loan in a quick manner. The procedure involved is not at all cumbersome. Such loans are appropriate for all kinds of purposes then be it financing the education, renovation of home, buying a personal car or perhaps a TV set.

Usefulness of Personal Unsecured Bad Credit Loans

Personal loan unsecured bad credit loans provide its borrowers with a great financial security and that too with bad credit score. What else does a person want in life? These loans ensure that you enjoy all the luxuries of life even if you can’t afford them. If you are able to use the loan amount judiciously, then nothing like it. Now you can have all that you had desired of in your dreams. Now you can pan to go on an exciting cruise, buy the house of your dreams, ride in the car of your choice, pursue further studies abroad, and throw lavish parties and many more. Unsecured personal loans with bad credit cater to the varied needs and aspirations of the people seeking such loans.

Benefits of Personal Unsecured Bad Credit Loans

The benefits that the personal unsecured bad credit loans provide are innumerable. However, we have attempted to list a few of them which are mentioned below:

* Easy availability of loan even with a bad credit

* Flexible terms of repayment

* Quick approval of loan amount

* Provision of large amount of loan

To fulfill your personal needs and aspirations and that too when you know you do not have enough equity to have all the riches of life, personal unsecured bad credit loan comes to play a vital role. Gone are the days when it was hard to secure personal loans for bad credit score. In the contemporary times, there are numerous lenders that are involved in the task of offering personal unsecured loans to people with poor credit history. Such loans not only help in providing a solution to your financial problem, but also help a great deal by showing you the avenue to restore your credit.

Unsecured personal loans have a solution to almost all your problems. You don’t need to go through complicated procedures to secure these loans. In fact, the lenders will be running after you to motivate you to take the personal unsecured bad credit loan. However, one disadvantage of going for such loans is the high rates of interest which is actually the extra price for the risk undertaken by the lender of the loan amount. Personal unsecured bad credit loans are usually provided on some asset that is offered as collateral. The value of the property mortgaged is more often greater than the total amount of loan. To conclude, the personal unsecured bad credit loans have made it possible to convert the dreams into reality.

About the Author: Want info on

payday advance loan in Utah

or

fast cash loan in Oregon

? Visit http://www.fixmoneyproblem.com for free payday loans info now.

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By Simon Volkov

While it would be helpful to file bankruptcy online, this option is not yet offered. However, other essential elements of the process can be obtained via the Internet such as learning about new bankruptcy laws, downloading financial worksheets, and locating legal counsel.

Although debtors cannot file bankruptcy online, numerous tools and resources are available that can expedite the process. One of the first considerations is becoming educated about the Bankruptcy Abuse Prevention and Consumer Protection Act (BAPCPA). These new bankruptcy laws forever changed opportunities for obtaining debt help.

BAPCPA is complicated and confusing. While there is no law requiring debtors to obtain legal counsel when filing personal bankruptcy, trying to go it alone can be a costly mistake. Beware of do-it-yourself bankruptcy kits, law firms soliciting by mail or phone, and agencies offering packages for a few hundred bucks.

The new laws are stringent and those who fail to comply will likely lose their chance of approval. Spend the money on a good bankruptcy attorney who has a solid grasp of BAPCPA guidelines.

Personal bankruptcy encompasses two chapters – 7 and 13. Prior to BAPCPA many people chose Chapter 7 because it eradicated outstanding debts. Chapter 7 requires debtors to liquidate non-exempt assets through a trust established by the court. Assets are returned to the lienholder or sold to pay off debts. Remaining balances are discharged and debtors can start afresh.

A lot of people racked up enormous credit card bills and filed Chapter 7 to eliminate debt. To curb that activity BAPCPA includes guidelines that require debtors to reorganize debt by establishing Chapter 13 payments.

Courts determine which chapter debtors qualify for by calculating earned income vs. state income levels. Debtors earning above median levels are normally ordered to enter into Chapter 13, while those earning less may qualify for Chapter 7. BAPCPA guidelines are provided via the U.S. Trustee website at Justice.gov.

Chapter 13 payments can last up to 5 years. This often places serious financial restrictions on debtors who are already struggling to make ends meet. Before heading to the court, debtors should spend time investigating bankruptcy alternative programs such as debt consolidation or debt settlement.

Debt consolidation is typically reserved for homeowners with accrued home equity. Debt settlement involves entering into negotiations with creditors to reduce outstanding balances. Use caution when working with debt settlement companies. They often charge outlandish fees and cannot guarantee results because creditors are not obliged to reduce balances.

Instead of hiring a debt settlor, consider negotiating with creditors on your own. When possible offer lump sum cash payment upfront along with a reasonable payment plan that you can stick with. Creditors will sometimes reduce interest rates or principal amounts when they realize debtors are considering bankruptcy.

BAPCPA requires petitioners to engage in credit counseling, but this can be a good bankruptcy alternative as well. Credit counselors are connected within the industry and can sometimes help negotiate payment plans that allow debtors to avoid filing bankruptcy.

If bankruptcy is the only viable option, debtors must commit to staying current with Chapter 13 payments. Otherwise, they will fail out of bankruptcy and lose court protection against creditors. Worse, debt help options will be limited and debtors prohibited from filing bankruptcy again for 8 years.

Carefully weigh the pros and cons of personal bankruptcy. Spend time researching information and consult with a lawyer to determine if this is the best financial strategy. Remember, this decision can impact your life for up to 10 years, so it’s important to choose wisely.

About the Author: California real estate investor, Simon Volkov offers a personal finance resource center via his investing website. Topics include bankruptcy, bankruptcy alternatives, why petitioners cannot file bankruptcy online and debt-relief solutions. Learn ways to conquer debt at SimonVolkov.com.

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By Darlene Berkel

The Visa Credit Card Company

Visa credit cards are a accepted all over the world, and their card services are available to a wide range of customers as well. Visa offers a variety of cards, and it is likely you will be able to find the right card for your needs.

The Visa Credit Card Company offers an online survey that helps prospective cardholders to choose the right card for them. The survey asks a few questions about the users needs and circumstances and the ‘online advisor’ will pick out the right card and direct the user to the visa credit card application form for the card that suits them.

First Time Applicants and Rebuilding Credit

The Classic Visa credit card is a simple card with a low spending limit; the card covers complimentary rental car insurance, will secure a lodging reservation, and can be used for everyday purchases.

The Student Visa Credit Cards will give students great money saving opportunities such as no annual fee, low annual percentage rates, reward or rebate points for purchases of school related items, and some cards will even give extra reward points for making good grades and using their credit wisely.

Visa even offer a pre-paid credit card for those who do not wish to be at risk of running up debt. The Buxx Visa credit card works just like a gift card, except that it can be re-loaded, and works anywhere that Visa is accepted. It is ideal as a ‘first card’ for children, since the parents select how much the child can spend, and there is no risk of a huge bill landing on the doorstep. It also makes a nice alternative to carrying cash around while you are travelling.

The Secured Visa Credit Card is another pre-paid credit card, except this credit card has all the power and responsibility of a real credit card; it is subject to annual percentage rates, finance charges, annual fees, and Visa will report the credit bureaus to help someone with no credit or credit problems establish new credit.

Gold and Premium Cards

Visa credit cards are available in a wide range of service levels; the premium cards include the gold, platinum and signature cards. Each of these cards is available from a variety of financial institutions; many people will find their local bank or credit union will carry the premium card of their choice.

The Gold Visa credit card will have a higher credit spending limit and higher credit standards to qualify for the card; the gold card will also offer the same services associated with a Classic Visa credit card.

The Platinum Visa credit card will have an even higher credit spending limit and require a very high credit rating to qualify for the card; the Visa Platinum card will have the same auto rental collision damage waver insurance as the Visa Classic card, as well as Visa’s Standard services.

The Signature Visa credit card is the most premier of all Visa credit card offerings; with super premier features such as travel insurance, rewards programs and many other high end services.

There are Visa cards for all types of customer, and Visa have made it easy for people to choose the right card for you. All you need to do is head over to their web site and let the survey guide you to the right card for your needs. You can even apply on the web site, and it only takes a few minutes – no paper forms, no hassle.

About the Author: Use

travel reward credit cards

for all your purchases and earn

valuable travel rewards.

; Find out more at; http://www.every1loves2travel.com

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